Board Thread:Questions and Answers/@comment-33532122-20180302171109/@comment-32811455-20180303143156

Predictions for Edgar vs Ortega anyone?

This fight is the true headliner as most fans know, and I can't wait for it personally. Edgar is a +155 favorite last I checked, but it's even money in my book, and I might even take Ortega. Over 3 rounds, Ortega has a higher chance to finish the fight than does Edgar, and his height and reach advantage will help him both on the ground (in his guard) as well as on his feet. It's hard to picture Edgar winning any other way than by decision, and 5 rounds is a lot of time to survive Ortega's ground game, especially since Edgar's best weapon is his top game / GnP. Triangle or Guillotine are Ortega's best chances to finish, and he is genius at both. I'd also give him an outside chance of landing a well-timed knee off a takedown attempt by Frankie.

Frankie's best chance to win is to carefully pick Ortega apart on his feet (out point him), although whether or not Frankie will have much of an edge in the standup remains to be seen. If he can control Ortega from the top and focus on avoiding submissions first and doing damage second, Edgar may also have a decent chance to win rounds on the ground. Standing guillotines like the one that got Cub and patented T-city triangles on the ground will make both aspects tricky for a fighter in Edgar who will need to either close the distance or land takedowns. I'm pretty sure Edgar can out-point Ortega despite his physical disadvantages (age, height, reach, and chin), I'm just not sure Edgar can avoid getting caught for 15 minutes.